No beating around the bush… 2018 was not a good year for almost all types of investments. Cash was king in 2018 (who knew).
See below for the 2018 basic indices.
As you can see, there are a few places to hide even with investment grade bonds barely breaking even.
I am not going to spend too much time in 2018, BUT I do feel that it is important to get ready for 2019. Personally, I look for a first-quarter rally in equities for the following reasons (but even a rally will not be a straight line and volatility will continue):
Normal bounce after sell-off of close to 20% in equities from the high of 2018
Decent earnings season (starting early in January)
US government employees back to work
No rate hike in March by Federal Reserve
Softening of relations between US and China (even if there is no trade deal in the first quarter)
When--fingers crossed--we get the rally, THAT will be the time to trim PUBLIC EQUITY positions and increase PRIVATE EQUITY AND PRIVATE DEBT positions to stabilize the volatility of the portfolio.
I do not want to sell positions that are temporarily down to move into the investments that will not rally.
I STRONGLY ENCOURAGE clients to meet with me during January (the earlier, the better) to review the strategies that will best suit them. (Gayle will also be calling to set up meetings)
For those who are still saving for retirement, we are now able to do TRIAL TAX RETURNS to look for the maximum RRSP contribution. NOTHING MAKES UP FOR CONTRIBUTIONS!!! (and we all know: it's BUY LOW and sell high…well it's low)
If you are unable to make it in soon, then REPLY to this e-mail and I will review your portfolio and send out some notes to you!
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‘historical analysis does not reflect future returns’